Understanding our Bias as Modellers
Our bias as modellers Our human biases can sometimes get in the way of effective analysis. Whenever you are changing something in your model, running a sensitivity or trying to answer an analytical question, it is always useful to create a hypothesis about what you think is going to happen. For instance, when the IRR […]
Why can I never get a good haircut?
Every few weeks the facial recognition on my iPhoneX (humble brag) stops working. This inability of my phone to recognise me baffled and offended me for a long time, but eventually I figured it out. It means I need a haircut! Now, I have issues with getting a haircut. I have been to many different […]
Fake News and Financial Models
We are living in a world of fake news. As traditional media outlets fragment, and literally anyone can put out content to a global audience, the traditional checks and balances of truth and impartiality no longer apply. This is already profoundly affecting society and shaking established democracies to their very foundations. As the educated elite, […]
Life is Poker, not Chess
I recently read ‘thinking in bets’ by Annie Duke. If you haven’t read it, you should, it is great. The book deals with decision making when you don’t have all the facts. As a financial modeller, it’s a subject close to my heart. In poker, you can be the world’s greatest player, make all the […]
The FAST and the Furious
Are you furious? Are you spending your days staring at spreadsheets trying to work out what the hell is going on? There was a time I would spend many hours unpicking detailed formulae, trying to work out why the numbers coming out of my model did not look right, usually under extreme pressure, usually at […]
Don’t build financial models that look like @$%*&
I had a meeting in Soho house the other day. It was a sunny Wednesday afternoon. It was packed with beautiful people, media and PR types, chilling by the pool. Seemingly their job are to see and be seen – a triumph of style over substance. I was there in my suit, a slightly overweight […]